Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change

In 1974, newly available satellite observations unveiled the presence of a giant ice-free area, or polynya, within the Antarctic ice pack of the Weddell Sea, which persisted during the two following winters(1). Subsequent research showed that deep convective overturning had opened a conduit between the surface and the abyssal ocean, and had maintained the polynya through the massive release of heat from the deep sea(2,3). Although the polynya has aroused continued interest(1-9), the presence of a fresh surface layer has prevented the recurrence of deep convection there since 1976(8), and it is now largely viewed as a naturally rare event(10). Here, we present a new analysis of historical observations and model simulations that suggest deep convection in the Weddell Sea was more active in the past, and has been weakened by anthropogenic forcing. The observations show that surface freshening of the southern polar ocean since the 1950s has considerably enhanced the salinity stratification. Meanwhile, among the present generation of global climate models, deep convection is common in the Southern Ocean under pre-industrial conditions, but weakens and ceases under a climate change scenario owing to surface freshening. A decline of open-ocean convection would reduce the production rate of Antarctic Bottom Waters, with important implications for ocean heat and carbon storage, and may have played a role in recent Antarctic climate change.